Monday, February 5, 2018

Going back to the Moon? This isn't 2009. The Costs are Not the Same.

NASA could go back to the future and revive moon base plans from a decade ago

In the wake of the National Space Council's first meeting, NASA says it has been told to draw up plans to send humans to the moon "for long-term exploration and utilization," followed by trips to Mars and other interplanetary destinations. That means moon bases are back in style.

 Me, "The difference today as opposed to 2009 is that you have a lot of new space companies that are willing to compete for some public money and use some of their own; in a Private-public partnerships to get out into space.
What also is different is the U.S. is not the only one who wants to go back to the Moon. You have a lot of space agencies from other countries like ESA, Japan, and Russia that want to go to the Moon too. So if you split 100 billion between 4 Space agencies you get 25 billion each. (Even China and India.) If you include them, total: 6 space agencies, is even lower, 16 billion. A much more reasonable figure than 100 billion. And I am sure other countries might be able to contribute as well.
With private space companies adding their own moneys that figure could be even lower. Its all about cooperation, Space is expensive. Cooperation between countries and space companies reduces that a lot. The timing for a moon base could be just right."
From article, (The [moon bases] favored site was to be the moon’s south polar region — where the rims of craters could provide nearly constant views of Earth, and where the permanently shadowed bottoms of craters could harbor water ice. That ice could be used to produce drinkable water, breathable oxygen and rocket propellants.
At the time, NASA envisioned starting the construction job sometime after Constellation’s first moon landing in 2020, and having a habitat ready for six-month tours of duty by 2025.
So what happened? The bottom line, that’s what. The cost estimate for Project Constellation rose beyond $100 billion, and that didn’t even include the cost of building the moon base. In 2009, a White House panel of independent space experts determined that the plan couldn’t be done on NASA’s budget.
One big factor has changed in the past decade: Back then, SpaceX was struggling to get into the launch industry, and then-millionaire Elon Musk was flirting with bankruptcy.
Today, business is booming at SpaceX, due to its low-cost approach to rocket launches and retrievals. Musk’s net worth has topped $20 billion, and he’s talking up monster missions to the moon and Mars, leading to Red Planet settlement within the next decade.)

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