Constrained by Money, NASA, Charts a New Course

Will Abandoning the International Space Station Set Investors Adrift?

Boeing (NYSE: BA) and its partners spent more than $100 billion to build the International Space Station (ISS). But in 2023 (or 2024 at the latest), Russia plans to take that investment apart -- detaching Russian-built sections of the ISS, and moving them into a new orbit to form the core of a new, all-Russian station.

 From article, (Money does not grow on trees -- especially not in space. Much as NASA loves space exploration, budget constraints necessitate picking and choosing the work it can afford to support, and outsourcing the rest. In saving money by cutting the ISS loose, NASA said that it hopes to free up funds to instead:

• fund development of the "Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft," targeting a robotic flight "around the moon" in 2020 and a first crewed mission in 2023.
• sponsor "progressively complex robotic missions to the surface of the moon."
• "return ... humans to the moon for long-term exploration and use."
• build a "power and propulsion element to orbit the moon as the foundation of a Lunar Orbital Platform-Gateway."
• and thereby support "human missions to Mars and other destinations."

if you ask me, this is what investors should really be focusing on -- not NASA's abandoning the space station, and potentially terminating contracts for Boeing, Orbital ATK(NYSE: OA), SpaceX, and Sierra Nevada to build rocketships to staff and supply it.

Instead, I think investors should focus on the potential for new and different contracts being awarded for all the other space missions NASA will be able to undertake once released from the ISS cash drain.

Currently, NASA devotes as much as 20% of its budget to supporting the ISS -- anywhere from $3 billion to $4 billion annually. That's money that could perhaps be better spent accelerating development of the Space Launch SystemOpens a New Window., still under development by a team of contractors that includes Boeing and Lockheed Martin, Orbital ATK and Aerojet Rocketdyne. It's a source of funds for building a cislunar outpostOpens a New Window. to facilitate missions to the moon and Mars, and to pay for initial efforts at returning mankind to the MoonOpens a New Window. -- and mining itOpens a New Window..

And even before the ISS is handed over to private industry to operate, there may be opportunities for investment. To facilitate the station's transition to private ownership, the administration is asking Congress to allocate $150 million to NASA in 2019, and recommending NASA "expand international and commercial partnerships" to operate the ISS "over the next seven years."

And during this interim period, the administration wants to boost NASA's budget to pay for "development and maturation of commercial entities and capabilities [that will become] commercial successors to the ISS." This, too, will cost money -- and could give rise to an entirely new set of (perhaps eventually public) companies working to make the ISS a commercially viable operation.

Already, privately held Made in SpaceOpens a New Window. has a 3D printer aboard the station, and as that technology develops, it's conceivable the ISS and other space stations could "print" their own replacement parts on-site. Bigelow AerospaceOpens a New Window. -- also private today -- has for months been testing an inflatable module attached to the ISS, which could one day replace the sections Russia will be detaching. Similarly, established space companies like Boeing, Lockheed, and Orbital have all proposed novel alternatives for converting spent rocket sections into habitable living space for the ISS, or for a new space station.)

For More Info

Even though the Satellite market is shrinking the size and weight of Satellites, does not mean, the market for Rockets like the Falcon Heavy, is limited. It just means, more satellites, can be launched, on the same rocket, at the same time.

Could Elon Musk Lose the Satellite Market -- and Win the Solar System?

Previewing the SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch, The Wall Street Journal seemed perplexed. Yes, the Falcon Heavy is big, admitted the Journal. But as a "heavy-lift booster," it said, it is a product designed to serve a market that's suffering "significantly eroded commercial demand" and "uncertain commercial prospects."

From article, (When SpaceX launched the world's biggest rocket ship on Feb. 6, that kind of seemed like a big deal -- but not everyone is impressed.

Previewing the SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch, The Wall Street Journal seemed perplexed. Yes, the Falcon Heavy is big, admitted the Journal. But as a "heavy-lift booster," it said, it is a product designed to serve a market that's suffering "significantly eroded commercial demand" and "uncertain commercial prospects."

The problem, as the Journal (correctly) pointed out, is that thanks to advances in rocketry, electronics, and materials technology, "both national security and corporate satellites continue to get smaller and lighter" (and cheaper).

Falcon Heavy is big, but it's not quite big enough to land astronauts on Mars -- and that's what Elon Musk really wants to do. 

That's good news for small rocket-launching start-ups like Vector Launch, Virgin Orbit, and Rocket Lab (which recently launched its first satellite into orbit). They hope to capitalize on burgeoning demand for cheap, on-demand access to orbit. But as the market for satellite launch moves toward satellites whose mass in measured in kilograms, not tons, it appears to make SpaceX's Falcon Heavy launcher -- which aims to put 70 tons of cargo in low Earth orbit in one go -- a solution in search of a problem.

Citing SpaceX's own launch manifest, the Journal points out that the company has only four contracts signed that call for the heavy lifting capabilities of the Falcon Heavy. That's versus dozens of launches slated to fly aboard SpaceX's Falcon 9. SpaceX's ultra-low prices for space launch have made its Falcon 9 incredibly popular among commercial satellite launchers. But there just doesn't seem to be a lot of demand for an even bigger launcher like the Falcon Heavy.

Either way,you want to build the biggest rocket ship possible. And that's why, after building and flying the Falcon Heavy earlier this month, Musk mused that what is now the world's biggest rocket ship was actually still "a bit small " for his purposes.

To make his Mars dreams a reality, Musk believes he will need an even larger rocket ship, the vessel he now calls the BFR. At almost 350 feet tall and weighing 4,400 tons, the BFR will probably comprise two main parts: a 190-foot-tall, 3,200-ton first-stage booster section; and a 157-foot-tall, 30 feet in diameter, 1,200-ton spaceship on top of it. That's big enough to cram in some really sizable spaceship parts for assembly in orbit. Alternatively, the BFR would be big enough to transport a team of colonists all the way to Mars in relative comfort, all on its own.

Musk wants the to be big enough that it can tackle just about every big mission you can throw at it -- sending astronauts to the Moon or Mars, gigantic-spaceship-construction in orbit, fueling those gigantic spacecraft, and even transporting cargo (and people) around between continents on Earth.

The BFR could, by the way, also carry supermassive satellites into Earth orbit -- just like the Falcon Heavy, but more so -- if predictions of the market shifting to all small satellites, all the time, don't pan out. But if they do, that should be fine with Elon Musk. Other companies can handle the small stuff, while he focuses on the big problem of designing really big rocket ships for interplanetary spaceflight.)

For More Info

Me, "While not stated in this article, with smaller and lower weight satellites you can launch more satellites, at one time, on one rocket. Some people would make the criticism that not all satellites go to the same locations above Earth. Well, you can add a mini upper stage to each Satellite that can move it into the proper orbit. This is not unheard of. Satellites have been moved to other orbits with their own thrusters."

Pause

Current Time0:00

/

Duration Time0:00

Stream TypeLIVE

Loaded: 0%

Progress: 0%

0:00

Fullscreen

00:00

Mu